My take aways from the 2016 State elections,
BJP IS NOT SOLELY DEPENDENT ON MODI:
While 2014 elections were won solely on the brand and image of Modi, ever since that election, there has been a prevailing opinion that BJP is only unidimensional with Modi and Amit Shah. The elections of Bihar last year, only going to prove that point. But ever since that debacle, BJP has recruited excellent back ground strategists and micro-managed campaign so much and this set of elections only goes on to prove that BJP is not solely dependent on Modi.
CONGRESS DO NOT HAVE A PLAN:
It’s one thing to project Rahul Gandhi and suffer massive failure in National Elections, but its other thing to keep on projecting a person who seems disinterested, has no clue of what is happening and doesn’t care how the party is going. These are dark days for Congress, losing their bastion of Assam and Kerala, and the quicker they come out of the “shadows of Gandhi family” the better, the chances are for the party to arrest this slump.
DYNASTY POLITICS IS NOT REWARDING AS IT USED TO:
We started seeing this trend with repeated debacles of Rahul Gandhi, now we are seeing in Assam with Tarun Gogoi trying to project his son Gaurav Gogoi and TN, Karunanidhi trying to project his son, M.K. Stalin. The people of this country have got so much awareness that, one doesn’t get to have the right to hold office just by blood relationship. Akhilesh Yadav in my opinion will be the last of the dynasty politics, with him also facing tremendous anti-incumbency waves in upcoming UP elections, because of non performance. I really hope this is an encouraging trend that public start meriting, performance more than surname.
KNOW YOUR AUDIENCE:
LDF and Amma knew their audience perfectly, and exploited them to the maximum. LDF knew that the people in Kerala are knowledgeable and hence made corruption of Congress party as their focal campaign point, where as Amma knew that, the people actually turning to vote in TN are not the intellectual arm chair critics, but the illiterate day wage workers and wooed them perfectly with freebies and promise of abolishment of liquor, to attract votes of women. All sane people know that, liquor abolishment will never occur in TN in near future, with TASMAC being the major source of income for exchequer. And Amma lives to fight for another day.
DMK and DMDK HAVE TOUGH ROAD AHEAD:
It’s one thing to be a darling to media and Meme makers and another to win an election. Vijayakanth learnt it the hard way with the total decimation of his party in the polls, while DMK for the first time failed to remove the incumbent Govt in 30 years. With feuding sons Alagiri and Stalin and ailing Karunanidhi, there are tough times ahead for DMK with possible splitting of party in near horizon. Losing Marans, was a big blow post 2G spectrum scam and now possible wide split of party will, see ADMK hold power for considerable time in near future.
IMPERIALISTIC LEADERS ARE SEEN TO BE SAFE BETS:
With incumbent victories of Mamta and Amma despite massive anti-incumbent wave in both states, in the view of general public, “Alpha females” or “Quasi-dictatorship” modeled parties are seen as safe bets in general public as there is less avenues for corruption compared to a party with multiple leaders
BIG WINNERS: BJP(winning Assam and increasing vote shares in Kerala, WB and Tamil Nadu.
BIG LOSERS: Undoubtedly CONGRESS